By Michael Woyton
It sounds simplistic, but voter turnout from now to Nov. 5 will decide who wins the White House.
According to the latest Marist National Poll released Wednesday, higher turnout will likely favor Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris over Republican candidate former president Donald Trump.
The survey, conducted Oct. 8 through Oct. 10, found that Harris continues to lead Trump 52 percent to 47 percent among likely voters nationwide.
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That includes those who say they are undecided but are leaning toward a particular candidate, Marist said. Earlier in October, the candidates were separated by two points with Harris at 50 percent and Trump at 48 percent among likely voters.
Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, there are two things to keep an eye on in the closing weeks of the presidential election.
“First, when you look at those who are likely to vote, Harris does better,” he said. “So higher turnout favors her.”
The second thing is the gender gap, Miringoff said, which should not be overlooked.
It is “unusually high, cuts both ways,” he said. “Trump carries men, and Harris carries women.”
The Marist National Poll found that Trump leads Harris 53 percent to 47 percent among men who are likely to vote while Harris has the advantage over Trump — 57 percent to 42 percent — among women.
Harris is favored over Trump when the Marist Poll divided the voters by generations: Gen X — Harris at 51 percent to Trump at 48 percent; Gen Z/Millennials, Harris at 53 percent, and Baby Boomers/Silent-Greatest Generations, Harris at 55 percent.
The poll also asked people how they intend to vote in the November election, and almost half — 47 percent — said they will show up to cast their ballots on Election Day.
Twenty-nine percent said they will vote at an early voting location, 24 percent said they will vote by mail or absentee ballot and 2 percent said they do not intend to vote. No one said they were unsure whether they would vote in the November election.
The Marist National Poll surveyed 2,021 adults who are 18 or older living in the United States. They were contacted by text or online.
Among likely votes, the partisan breakdown for the poll was 40 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 26 percent independents.
The margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points.
You can view the entire Marist National Poll here.
Lead art: Photo by Michael Woyton
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